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While everyone was eyeing the coming effects of the region's first big casino, it's Legoland that seems to be our biggest challenge, especially now that long-awaited interstate plans for SR 17 seem to have been shelved. Courtesy photos
Coming Changes Signal Traffic Chaos Ahead
Demographic Shifts, Mega-Development & I-86's Demise...

REGIONAL – With an economy that has struggled back to life and unemployment now at 4 percent (which economists call "full employment"), the Mid-Hudson Valley and its reach into the Southern Catskills and Shawangunk Ridge is in the midst of many changes, ranging from demographics to new development. Talking with three of the best informed observers of our area produced some interesting news and views.

First, in terms of demographic changes... our population is aging and elementary schools are starting to close around the region. Furthermore, the arrival of new groups is posing challenges.

Professor Gerald Benjamin, former legislator and author of Ulster County's Charter as well as director of the Benjamin Center at SUNY New Paltz, where he previously served as dean, has been tracking the changes. He has predicted a surge in the Latino population and observes that, "This growth in the Latino population is very challenging for our institutions, especially our school districts where we face the issue of English as a second language. However, we have to remember these are people with a significant work ethic who take on jobs that Americans prefer not to do."

Jonathan Drapkin, president and CEO of Pattern for Progress, the Newburgh centered "think tank," makes another point about the same growing demographic, noting that, "This is not a monolithic group. There are Mexicans, there are South Americans from Peru and other countries, and there are Puerto Ricans and Dominicans, too. They are all different. We need to be conscious of that when working on programs to help integrate them into society as a whole. We want to encourage this growing demographic to be part of the mosaic in the Hudson Valley, and it would be wise for us to listen to the leadership in those communities."

The Latino communities are moving into older city centers, from Poughkeepsie to Middletown, and Benjamin notes, "There are new cultural institutions being built both within existing churches and in new churches. They are also people who are committed to their communities who support each other. Our challenge is to respond to their needs in our schools so their children are fully educated and can become students in our colleges."

The other demographic challenge facing the region is the move from Brooklyn of many thousands of ultra orthodox Jews, known collectively as the "Hasidim" to those not privy to better designations. They too come in many different flavors, from the relatively worldly Lubavitchers of Chabad, to the defiantly closed off Satmar congregation of Kiryas Joel.

Professor Benjamin is frank... "This is our biggest challenge because we are creating new municipalities for a self-segregating community. And it's an easy choice for surrounding communities that don't want to be engulfed socially or politically. Assimilation processes don't work on these groups and it leads to inter-communal conflicts at the regional level. I think this is the most significant immigration issue in the region for local governance. I have a seventy page paper coming soon on this. It is a really challenging development."

Drapkin makes the same point here that he made about the Latino influx, pointing out that, "This is not a monolithic population, either. When we look into Rockland County communities we see these people very well integrated. They open local businesses, they have restaurants. That said, we have to distinguish between the segments of this growing demographic separately. Some want to be part of a broader Hudson Valley society and some severely frown upon it, in fear of losing their ability to foster the cultural forms they have developed."

For his part, Orange County Commissioner of Planning Dave Church notes that Kiryas Joel, the Satmar community at the eastern end of Orange County, will become the largest municipality in the county in population by the next census in 2020.

"The latest proposal there, to become their own town of North Monroe, will be debated this fall," he pointed out.

With the various demographic challenges, including a growing influx of ex-urbanite Millennials from Brooklyn and other New York boroughs to Beacon, Hudson, Kingston and smaller towns, he adds that the twinned issues of transportation and development are likely to be equally important.

Church explains that the long planned conversion of Route 17 to Interstate 86 is now on hold. The interstate will run along the Southern Tier portion of the state, he noted, but not much past Binghamton coming east from the Pennsylvania border.

"The dedicated funds for it are gone," he pointed out. And Orange County's priorities lie elsewhere.

Church sees the effort to sort out Exit 131 at Monroe as being the next big transportation project for the area, pointing out how it "will be brought up to highway standards."

That leads, naturally, to thoughts about the two mega destination resorts being planned for the region: Legoland, in Orange County, and the Montreign Casino, in Sullivan. Combined with Bethel Woods and other, more speculative projects such as the Nevele Sports Park, these huge developments offer traffic nightmares on busy summer weekend evenings.

Drapkin favors the Legoland project, a theme park just off Route 17 close to Goshen that has already aroused local opposition.

"We don't oppose this project, we think it should be done smartly," he said for his outfit. "We have to look long and hard at the infrastructure and changes in transportation. That means looking carefully at 'car counts' to what the road system can or can't handle... This would be only the fourth Legoland location like this in the entire United States. That means countless numbers of people will be turning their attention to the Hudson Valley; a great many people who would not have come here otherwise will discover the area. Of course it has to be balanced by local environmental and community needs."

Benjamin says he would prefer manufacturing jobs to Legoland jobs, but adds, "The tour buses going up to Woodbury Commons can add Legoland to the trip."

And families heading to the Montreign Casino and Adelaar Resort complex near Monticello could do the same. As might sports families and groups going to the proposed Nevele Sports Park.

Drapkin notes the upsides for all our local businesses.

"Of course eighty percent of the casino visitors will stay within that building," he added. "But going by the current estimates that means about 600,000 others will go out and explore the area."

Dave Church sees merits in the Legoland project, but cautions that there are "some serious traffic and transportation infrastructure needs that we're only just starting to price. And if you're wanting the government to pay for it, it takes longer."

Those issues would include water and traffic as well as scenic concerns.

One upside for locals who use Exits 114 and 115 off route 17 is that the postponement of any conversion to Interstate 86 will preserve those exits, which would not be allowed on a full Interstate.

Talk about change everyone can still believe in...



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